Panjshir’s Encirclement: A Conflict’s Turn to become Waterloo for the Taliban
We bemoan the fall of the weak Asraf Ghani government of Afghanistan but are we serious about universal solidarity favouring the last ditch resistance by the diehard fighters of Panjshir? What were we doing when we knew from beforehand that America was in no mood to stay at the Afghan front, rather it was contemplating for some opportune moment to withdraw its forces in a rather abrupt fashion to leave it to Taliban backed by Pakistan. Can we sufficiently imagine the grave consequences of global jihad that might follow from the Hakkani network and other jihadi factions finding its way into the newly installed Taliban regime in Afghanistan which differs largely from Zalmay Khalilzad’s draft proposal of transitional peace government? When all these elude straightforward answer making it amply evident that we were not ready to reconcile with such drastic overnight changes triggered by the shift of US commitment, the significance of Panjshir putting up a desperate challenge naturally gets the special halo of respect amidst looming darkness all around. Despite Taliban’s claim of advance to storm the bulwark of the opposition-alliance of North Afghanistan, as NRF has reported that several important areas of the valley are still in their possession.
The Panjshir conflict is therefore unlike any other armed conflict because while it knows its ultimate nemesis, the National Resistance Front and other groups display iron-strong determination to throw the gauntlet to the newly domineering Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan which is controlled by the Taliban. It is to be noted here that that on 17.08.2021 Amrullah Saleh assumed the Afghan Presidency after the escape of the President Asraf Ghani from the country. He too could have fled the country, but he is resisting the Taliban instead and declared the clarion call of resistance. On 26th August a brief ceasefire was declared. On 1st September, talks broke down and fighting resumed as the Taliban attacked resistance positions. Although it is highly suspect how the Taliban forces could hitherto “withstand counterinsurgency operations” if they were not sheltered or guided by ISI, hence can the US with all its rhetoric of democracy and human rights play a completely innocent role in the entire episode? It seems rather conspiratorial as how a narrative was systematically spun and unleashed that Afghanistan was going into the Taliban control even when there was no major military offensive by Taliban in reality. Thus it seems a major maneuvering was done by narrative to steer clear bits and pieces of local resistance which the Taliban could easily win over apart from several other factors like Afghan people’s antipathy towards foreign forces that went to facilitate their military juggernaut into almost all parts of Afghanistan which they went on occupying except one of the 34 provinces of Afghanistan, i.e., Panjshir, during 3 weeks from 17th August. After taking possession of the Capital-city of Kabul on 15th August, the Panjshir province, located in the North-East of Afghanistan, was the last base of the Anti-Taliban militias in the country. Panjshir has been fighting fiercely for asserting its sway over a tiny pocket for couple of days against the Taliban-Pakistan forces. The Taliban forces, though able to take control of the fulcrum of the country’s ‘post-US future’, have confronted strong obstacles on the part of Panjshir. Initially the Taliban were unable to occupy Panjshir in spite of all-out attempts. Under the prominent leadership of the Tajik commander Ahmed Massoud and former Vice President of the country Amrullah Saleh, N.R.F. was able to successfully resist the Taliban forces for more than three weeks thus engendering a 50-50 like situation. However after a few days of intense fighting with the Taliban forces it seems that the triumph of the Taliban over Panjshir is gradually brightening up. Being unable to seize the Northern Alliance (fighting in favour of Panjshir) in a shootout, the Taliban are plotting to subdue Panjshir in some other ways. Evidence of this fact was found in the words of former Afghan Vice President Mr. Amrullah Saleh. This son of the soil of Panjshir Valley has appealed to the United Nations to take necessary actions against such aggressors like Taliban immediately as to this issue. He expressed his concern pertaining to ‘large-scale human rights violations’ taking place throughout the Panjshir valley as Taliban in a clever strategy is being heard to have taken resort to kidnapping children as pawn to augment pressure on the Northern forces. The Taliban forces have also completely cut off trade and Tele-communication system of the area thus turning it into an isolated pocket to put the local people in extreme crisis. It has affected Panjshir province as well as three districts of neighbouring Baghlan province. The former Afghan Vice President Amrullah Saleh appealed to the international forums, including the United Nations, to be proactive to cut this ‘blackout’ crisis.
But it may be noted that not only the Taliban, but several other powers have joined hands to seize Pasnjshir as Amrullah claimed because in terms of symbolism gaining control over this province is considered extremely important because in the mid-1990s this region played a major role in “helping the Americans to topple the Taliban”. So, now the gravity of the conflict has shifted to this province where about two and a half lakh locals, including the elderly, women and children, and more than 10 thousand people have been spending their days in indescribable misery. According to Amrullah, all of them took refuge in Panjshir after the fall of the country’s major cities, including Kabul, the Capital-city following final pullout of the American troops. Presently some of those homeless people were living in mosques, some of those in schools and some of them under the open sky without minimum life support and required protection from the Delta variant of Covid. He therefore added, if these issues are not now addressed properly, then there would be a massive human rights violation, and we are likely to witness events like genocide. The former Vice President Amrullah added that at the moment, there is a pressing need for provision of food, drinking water and other essentials like medicines keeping in mind the pandemic situation. He wrote the details of how he escaped to Panjshir after the possession of Kabul by the Taliban forces through a British news outlet. ‘That night I informed my chief guard Rahim that we were going to Panjshir’, he added. ‘If I was shot by the Taliban on the street, then he would shoot me twice in the head, since I don’t want to surrender to the Taliban’. On the other hand Taliban forces are desperate to take possession of Panjshir,(the last fortress of the resistance forces of the Northern Alliance) which is located 150 km. away north from Kabul. Now almost every day there are reports of clashes between the two sides. Sometimes the Taliban are claiming to occupy more than one area of Panjshir Valley. Sometimes the counter-resistance forces are announcing success in killing the Taliban. For example, Fahim Dasti, a spokesperson of the Afghan resistance forces, wrote on the 4th September in the Tweeter that the resistance forces have killed about 600 Taliban in different areas of Panjshir since morning. In addition, 1000 more Taliban surrendered and were taken as prisoners.
However, a closer look to past events reveals that there were various Mujahideen groups, apart from the Taliban, who were operating for extending respective control within Afghanistan. As a young scholar of ICWA in a recent take discussed how major militias under different ethnicities like Shia Hazaras controlled different portions of the land “even though between 1996 and 2001, the Taliban managed to expand its influence across western and central Afghanistan” (A. Ghosh, ICWA Analysis dated Aug6, 2021). She discussed it with reference to several maps taken from Wikipedia’s Generic Scheme of the War of Afghanistan (1992-2001). Now, however, what we find is extra power that is backing the Taliban in defeating these rival militias and establishing monopoly control over territories. The plan of occupying Panjshir is part of this purpose. Some experts on International Relations allege that the ISI (Pak Intelligence Agency) has been helping the occupation of Panjshir in favour of the Taliban. Otherwise it would not have been possible on the part of the Taliban forces to add an edge by mobilizing superior forces in trying to capture Panjshir.
Certain things must be remembered here that the valley of Panjshir has always been protected due to its geographical location. During the Soviet aggression too in 1979, foreign powers could not occupy Panjshir. Besides, Panjshir did not bow its head to the Taliban in the past. During 1996 to 2001 Taliban forces failed to capture Panjshir even after occupying the ruling power. Virtually, after occupying the country by the Taliban, it becomes a matter of prestige fight for controlling Panjshir on the part of the Taliban forces. Still, how the picture changed this time is worthwhile to think about.
Nevertheless it is notable that even when Taliban has won the game in the broader canvas, its failure to achieve military breakthrough in Panjshir exposes its weakness because now it seems that the war of Panjshir might turn into a veritable Waterloo for Taliban. In the historic battle of Waterloo in June 1815 Napoleon Bonaparte had failed to anticipate the things that changed the course of modern European history. Similarly it was thought that the Taliban would announce the formation of their government after their victory over Panjshir. But propaganda space being used by such a tiny the resistance pocket seems quite amazing. It shows that Panjshir may or may not fall under Taliban but the strength of resistance put up by Panjshir and their resilient struggle would continue to inspire the Afghan masses in future to fill the space of Afghanistan’s security vacuum. We hail this spirit in front of the crushing pressure that Taliban is able to exercise, of course with the active supply chain from Pakistan. There is no iota of doubt that the attack on Panjshir was carried out by the Pak army’s ‘Northern Light Infantry’ and ‘Special Service Group’ according to the planning of Pak Intelligence Agency, ISI.
Written By Professor (Dr.) Gouri Sankar Nag, Dept. of Political Sc, Sidho-Kanho-Birsha University and
Dr. Manas Mukul Bandyopadhyay, Associate Prof. Dept. of Political Sc, Hooghly Mohsin College.
